US Industrial data for Q1 signals weak economy.How Bad it is?

US Industrial data for Q1 signals weak  economy .How bad it is.

the world’s largest economy in the first quarter of this year may encounter similar to last year’s “winter”. But beside of the steady employment, other economic data from January to March is not satisfactory, the US first-quarter economic growth slowed sharply undoubtedly the “virtual certainty.”

A report on Friday (April 15) announced that the US March industrial production fell more than expected, due to manufacturing output decline in a year maximum, mining is still in a downward trend, which is the first-quarter US economic growth the latest sign of a significant slowdown.

The report added before the retail sales, business spending, trade and wholesale inventories data showing economic growth earlier this year, is extremely slow. Current market expectations in the first quarter economic growth forecast down to an annual rate of 0.2% in the fourth quarter economic growth of 1.4%.

Economists say, considering a series of temporary factors, they lowered the economic growth forecast for the first quarter, including government model used to eliminate seasonal fluctuations in the data there has been a problem.

Last year the Government to take measures to improve the composition of the index seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) data section, but economists said the data still remaining in a certain seasonality.

“The first quarter growth rate is certainly disappointing, but we have a reason for optimism because there is still the problem indicators, GDP data are still residual seasonality. Judging from the past, economic performance in the second quarter will be reversed, “Moody” s Analytics senior economist Ryan Sweet said.

Federal Reserve (FED) said on Friday that industrial production fell 0.6% in February after a 0.6% decline the month before. In the past seven months, industrial production has declined for six months. Economists originally estimated last month, industrial production fell only 0.1%.

Additional, the University of Michigan, said in a report earlier this month consumer confidence index fell to 89.7 in March to 91.0, for fear of slowing economic growth may lead to job growth deceleration.

Consumer confidence has declined for four consecutive months, the
Consumer inflation expectations fell to historic lows, which could make the Fed cautious to maintain the current low-interest rates over a longer period.
“Consistently low prices, an increase in monetary policy than currently anticipated longer maintain a highly accommodative risk,” said Barclays economist Jesse Hurwitz.

Oil prices lead to reduced energy industry capital investment, and corporate digest excess inventory efforts, also dragged down industrial production, but with the recent improvement in manufacturing data, the industry appeared the worst time has passed signs.

“It is possible to adjust inventory and continue to weigh on the dollar in the first quarter output data, but we have these factors to drag the economy has passed the worst period feel confident, factory activity will increase soon,” JPMorgan economist Daniel Silver said.