Merrill Lynch:The Influence Of Article 50 Is Yet To Be Felt

Merrill Lynch released in the foreign exchange research report, the influence of Article 50 is yet to be felt, so the bank does not agree the move will reduce the deterministic argument that the two-year negotiation period will not give the EU bring a sense of urgency, the difficulty faced by capital inflows will not help the pound course.

   Merrill Lynch analysts believe the GBP / USD or bottom of the range and will return to test 1.20 trading range, but is triggered after the first 50 terms of the pound sterling may be able to provide a buying opportunity, investors need to pay close attention to the pound.

  The bank analyst added: “We are still bearish on the pound held attitude, of course, we also recognize that the current level positions will be reversed in the positive seasonal factors after the arrival of April, because of the past 12 years in April will be £ usher in a rebound, but the bottom of the GBP/USD technically is not yet clear. ”

(GBP / USD 4-hour chart)

Will the Dollar lose momentum? The key indicators are suggesting that the rally will continue

A series of economic data released shows that the US ISM manufacturing index, construction spending, and MARKIT manufacturing index performed beautifully, the dollar index in early New York session today got a boost to a 103.87 level, breaking a 14-years record high of 103.65.

  Data for Supply Management (ISM) released Tuesday showed the US December manufacturing index rose to its highest in December 2014. Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department data released Tuesday showed the US November construction spending rose to 10 years high, better than expected, this could give a boost to economic growth in the fourth quarter.

  However, now many investors, after the recent strong dollar rally are worried if it can be sustained, but the difference between the actual yield important indicator has issued such a signal – the dollar’s rise will not end too soon.

  The difference between the actual yield, which after adjustment for inflation, US dollar-denominated fixed-income assets, interest earned on assets denominated in other currencies and the arbitrage between the interest rates. In fact, since last November US presidential election, the difference between the actual interest rates of the United States and Japan have more than doubled, the 10-year US Treasury interest rate has risen from 1.8% to 2.5%, while the US dollar rose 13%. against the yen


The Dollar Index (DXY) Reached its top Resistance Level

The Dollar Index (DXY) Reached its top Resistance Level This signals the beginning of a bearish trend.

At the Asian Trading session, the DXY traded around the 97.70 level. After the previous day’s declines, the dollar index is currently traded in a narrow range at a low level and shown signs of a slight decline .

At the beginning of the Asian session  trading day, the DXY Price was basically flat, it fell 0.7 percent compared to the previous day, over anxiety surrounding next week’s U.S. Presidential election. Experts pointed out that during the Asian Session trading day displayed weak market performance, E-Mini S & P futures fell 0.2 percent, West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) fell 0.6 percent, the Nikkei index fell 1.2%, MSCI MSCI Asia-Pacific ( Japan) index fell 1% . Technically, Analysts say the dollar index moving average failed to peak above its 20-day moving average , signaling the dollar bearish trend begun. Analysts also pointed out that if the dollar index closed below the 20-day moving average of 97.97, matched with the short signal, objective observation at 97.19, the level of the exchange rate from August to October, 38.2% retracement of the rally. Finally, Analysts said that the dollar index initial support at the previous day’s New York trading session was at low of 97.64, the initial resistance at the previous day’s trading declined at 32.8% to support level of 97.95.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is Under Pressure

(美元 指数 30 分钟 图 <br> <! - Hou1tihuan -> <br> <! - Hou1tihuan -> <h4> </ h4> <h4> </ h4> <! - Hou2tihuan ->

Resistance 3 99.11
Resistance 2 98.79
Resistance 1 98.27
Pivot 97.95
Support 1 97.43
Support 2 97.11
Support 3 96.59

Euro Trembles Before the EBRD’s Meeting Resolutions

Euro trembles before the EBRD (The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) resolutions of its’ meeting over fear it will be a setback.

  Euro / dollar on Wednesday (April 20) fell as investors worried that the European Central Bank on Thursday’s remarks could hurt the euro, but some high-risk commodity currencies against the US dollar remained near the highs in the coming months, as oil prices rebounded and alleviate concerns about the global economy.

  Before the ECB meeting Thursday, the euro / dollar from an intraday high of 1.1386 hit earlier in the week eased on Thursday (April 21) Asian market exchange rate to maintain the weak position above the 1.1300 line. Analysts said that although the European Central Bank will announce further easing policy is expected to be low, but the market expects the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi may leave dovish remarks will hurt the euro, which led traders to sell the euro.

  19:45 GMT Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce interest rate decision 20:30 GMT Thursday Draghi (Mario Draghi) will hold a press conference. Bloomberg survey of 47 analysts showed the market generally believes that the European Central Bank this week, will not introduce new stimulus measures, attention will turn to the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s speech.

  Oanda Dean Popplewell, chief currency strategist, said, “Investors do not want to hold out too much before euro positions.” Last month, the European Central Bank cut interest rates to reposition itself, to expand the scale and increase the monthly purchase debt on the banks of a series of low-interest loans combination punches.

  Analysts pointed out that the market reaction may be different from March, but overall, Draghi hawkish tone means that no further easing of short-term, the euro expected to rise. But if Draghi holds dovish stance, fear will introduce more easing, the euro will be under pressure selling.

  AUD / USD from earlier intraday created by a 10-month high of 0.7830 was down, but the late hovering near $ 0.7800 level. Canadian dollar against the US dollar rose to nine-month high 1.2590. Analysts said the rebound in oil prices and confidence in China’s economic situation further increased so commodity currencies benefit. Chinese economy in recent weeks released data strong.

  US dollar against the safe-haven yen rose to two-week high 109.88. US dollar / Swiss franc also rose more than 1%, more than three weeks to the highest of 0.9733. The Swiss franc is often regarded as a safe haven investment. Shahab Jalinoos, global head of currency strategist at Credit Suisse, said the US bond yields over comparable European bonds and Japanese bond yields higher because the dollar is rising against the yen and the euro. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields hit three weeks maximum 1.859%.

  US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) position data showed last week, hedge funds and other large speculators betting on short euro holdings to near the weakest since June 2014 level. Peng Bozhuan article said, amid speculation the European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday, President Mario Draghi will imply a further easing of policy space.

  The ECB will make the market setback?

  Given the probability of the ECB Governing Council in March disclosed a series of stimulus measures taken in April meeting key actions substantially reduced to zero. Of monetary policy as well as the limited nature of the question the next question for the European Central Bank action, likely to dominate President Mario Draghi’s press conference.

  Canada’s Scotiabank (Bank of Nova), chief currency strategist in Toronto Shaun Osborne, said: “The euro looks a bit fragile, before the ECB meeting some speculative selling that Draghi will not appear on the policy level, there any action, but it may make some dovish comments, and may reserve rate cut may be again. ”

  DailyFX currency strategist Christopher Vecchio said the focus will be on Thursday Draghi’s press conference, in particular, Q & A, will result in fluctuations in the euro on Thursday intensified. Draghi said the central bank and other officials last policy is not directed against foreign currency exchange rate , the euro rebounded to a breathing space.

  BK Asset Management chief analyst Kathy Lien said that although the meeting there will be more tightening or ease the introduction of action, but if Draghi hinted at more rate cuts next aspect to spending some effort, the euro / dollar could fall to 1.1100 line but if he has expressed the need for more time to observe easing the economic impact of the euro / dollar could further upstream towards 1.1400.

  Fidelity International (Fidelity) Analysts Dierk Brandenburg in an interview on Thursday the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank is unlikely to have a substantial impact on the euro, central banks have looked into the “intermission.” According to Fidelity website, the company’s assets under management as of September 30 at $ 258.4 billion.

  However, there are market rumors Draghi willing to open the printer, the “helicopter money” to promote local economic recovery, but it remains to be seen whether in the EU internal legal adoption. However, if the “Super Mario ” reference to this concept at a press conference, the foreign exchange market or the outbreak of “Earthquake.”

  FXStreet Valeria Bednarik, the chief analyst pointed out that the ECB is concerned, but the market does not usually react to the wording of the facts. Such as Super Mario back in a news conference this concept currency may suffer the short-term impact of the earthquake.

  Andrew Bosomworth Pimco portfolio manager said the ECB is unlikely to be “helicopter money” in the short term as a serious policy option.

  SEB Bank (SEB) believes that the European Central Bank on Thursday will not discuss the “helicopter money” loose issues.

  SEB Bank said, “We do not think the ECB will discuss ‘helicopter money’ type of loose way because a number of members felt that this subject to legal restrictions from the European Central Bank a recent action, the EBRD expected macro or report showed the eurozone to reach the medium-term inflation target. “

Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price Was Born at 256.92 yuan / gram.

“Shanghai gold benchmark” refers to the Shanghai Gold Exchange Release pricing contracts, the RMB-denominated, delivery in Shanghai, the standard weight of 1 kg and fineness of not less than 99.99% gold bullion.
This market is a new price discovery mechanism in the global gold markets which formerly relied on Londons’ fix.

April 19 morning, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the world’s first to the yuan -denominated gold standard price fix.

“Shanghai gold” reference price today was born, the first pen “Shanghai gold” benchmark price freeze at 256.92 yuan / gram.

The so-called “Shanghai gold fix” refers to the Shanghai Gold Exchange Release pricing contracts, the RMB-denominated, delivery in Shanghai, the standard weight of 1 kg and fineness of not less than 99.99% gold bullion, by the Shanghai Gold Exchange price system trading platform to achieve transaction.


The “Shanghai gold” reference price (Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price), refers to the “Shanghai gold” at the Shanghai Gold Exchange trading platform through a specified pricing “price to the amount of exercise,” the centralized trading, after reaching a market volume and price equilibrium, and ultimately the formation of RMB benchmark prices.

On the base price release ceremony held in the morning, the Shanghai Gold Exchange announced the pricing of 12 members and six members of the reference price list and a list of 18 international consultants.

China is the world’s largest gold producer and consumer countries, in which, the Shanghai Gold Exchange has nine consecutive years ranked inside the world’s largest gold spot Exchange floor at home and abroad gather important gold production, consumption, finance and investment companies. Therefore, the Shanghai Gold Exchange launched the “Shanghai gold” reference price will fully reflect the supply and demand of China’s gold market, representing the price trend of Chinese gold market, with use value; can be provided for the gold trading market, reliable RMB-denominated gold prices .

Meanwhile, China’s gold derivatives market has been the lack of yuan-denominated gold price point and authoritative fair, “Shanghai gold” The introduction of the benchmark price of gold will contribute to the development of China’s financial derivatives market, and will also be associated with gold financial products, financial products, and derivatives prices have a major impac

Gold and Silver Trading Alert: Gold’s insignificant Rally

Gold moved higher yesterday, but it doesn’t seem that it had a major impact on even the short-term outlook as even the short-term resistance and the precious metal lost the momentum over the night

Yesterday, the markets were most concerned about the overall tone of the Fed but it left moderate, relatively small impact on the market, we expect the Fed bearish gold does not appear, the price of gold went during the night into shock. But before the Fed news, gold exhibit bearish technical patterns of the situation, but after a message, fundamentals and technicals did not resonate, then the price of gold into shock, in a sense, since it is possible to rise not fall, However, the sustainability of the rebound, I still remain skeptical, because I would be at the bottom for the dollar near the 94 mark construction rebounded, then gold will rebound obstacles, therefore, caution days only to see a rebound.

Gold yesterday fell below the planned rally short after 1222, former US gold ounce below the 1222 to 1217 the lowest position, but because of the Fed’s late at night there is a message, below the 1222 time seems too early, so the United States offer appeared more intense rebound , rebounded to around 1227-28, 1224-27 recommends shorting is also a matter of course, two in the morning the lowest test white lows near 1217 began to fall into shock, the current station when the hourly chart above ma60 again. Short term, the gold price is not absolutely weak pattern, overnight air alone did not profit by early redemption should avoid the risk of short-term rebound, then wait for the next opportunity to do a solo. H4 moving average was flat. There is no neutral policy. Sound can wait.

From the dateline point of view, on Tuesday to close in Yang Xian, Wednesday to close at Yinxian under the shadow line, and since Yinxian completely inside the candle, so the date line is not part of the disadvantaged. From the day under the shadow line of view, there will be a wave of rebound today, although I’m not sure whether the station on 1236, but rebounded to 1229-30 probability of still relatively large, but the rebound process can proceed smoothly also depends on the dollar response index, once the dollar index station on the 5th line against the line, then the gold rally will be difficult to proceed. Daily aspect, yesterday’s high of 1232, there are signs of shock convergence on h4, days short-term strategy: radical early 1225 more than a single continue to hold the 1220 loss of the chance to see Paul set to lighten up after 1230, might be able to break the convergence pressure on the border triangle ; short program, below 1220 before considering short, look to rebound 1225 1230 1218 loss empty. Recent gold mainly does short-term. The daily cycle of yin and yang aspects is expected to until after April 15 it may have a smooth market.

Silver yesterday, Wednesday staged a roller coaster trend, white plate today is expected to shock the city still does not appear significant unilateral desire, but after experiencing a long-term consolidation, and the subsequent need to focus on key points Power average, once Power follow-up action.

Crude oil, was a continuous movement of a great variety, regardless of 40.10 last week to start a short or long rally this week, 35.20 starts, during exercise almost no callback. Crude oil rebounded yesterday in line with the technical side but also in line with the news, not only for investors to re-OPEC “frozen production agreement” to restore confidence in the favorable factors, as well as promoting positive EIA data. US data Energy Information Administration (EIA) latest data show that as of April 1 the week crude oil inventories fell 493.7 million barrels, is expected to increase the value of 315 million barrels of crude oil rebounded to categorical data to inject new momentum. Yesterday’s recommendation to do more than look at 37.60-38 36.50-60, and almost to the point is the lowest intraday point if there will be a significant amount of money in accordance with policy enforcement. Today, Thursday, crude oil is expected to rise further to around 38.50, however, after rising a full two days, oil prices stand on the 38 mark, the target position step away from the short positions on the operation would be difficult to find the right point, the European plate back or waiting for the opportunity to step over 37.50 USD