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gold is bullish, and investors should continue to buy on dips today.

Hexun.

The OPEC secretariat reports that the current outlook for the oil market is harsher than last month’s and expects an increase in crude oil demand of 5.95 million barrels per day by 2021. A shortfall of one million barrels per day is scheduled for this year. Countries that still need to submit compensation plans have been told to do so as soon as possible. OPEC May oil production grew by 280,000 barrels per day to 25.52 million daily. A spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that while substantial progress has been made in the 2015 nuclear agreement negotiations, some critical issues must still be resolved. IAEA Director-General Grid Ross said the talks with Iran had “no results,” Iran must clarify issues of its stock of enriched uranium more than 16 times the agreed-upon limit. The EIA data shows that despite the sanctions imposed on Iran, the United States imported 1.033 million barrels of crude oil from Iran in March. In a draft document, the G7 finance ministers stated that they support the OECD/efforts G20 to agree on the lowest global corporate tax rate; once the economy has recovered, the ministers must ensure the long-term sustainability of government finances; and the central bank’s numbers will be discussed. Begin work on the fundamentals of currency, and report conclusions later in 2021. the OECD issued an economic outlook, predicting that the global economy will grow by 5.8% in 2021, and many countries’ expectations have been raised. The international tax agreement may be concluded in October, according to Guria.

Investors are currently shorting commodities, ranging from crops to natural gas.

The CFTC and ICE data suggest that since November last week, the Bloomberg commodity index tracking hedge funds are the most significant position in various commodities. Decline Monday’s data shows that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) had not purchased ETFs in May, the first time since Kuroda’s election as BOJ governor in 2013 when he did not intervene in the market. The data highlights that the central bank is retreating from Kuroda’s “bazooka” stimulus plan, as the years of massive asset purchases have attracted criticism. Several critics say this has made the BOJ balance sheet highly vulnerable. German inflation data was released on Monday after local measures to contain the flu were relaxed. This month’s data has risen 2.4% year-over-year, the highest since October 2018. This year, inflation may increase to 4% for the first time since the euro’s creation.

Previously, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced that to manage foreign exchange liquidity for financial institutions better, it has decided to increase the reserve ratio for foreign exchange deposits from 5% to 7% beginning June 15, 2021.

While the world economy grows, the gap between developing and developed countries increases, and it will take longer to recover to pre-epidemic output levels.

The global oil inventory surplus will be eliminated by the end of June. To achieve at least 2 million BPD of inventory drop by September-December, OPEC+ will have much room to increase production. Even if the current increase is completed, 6% of the global supply is idle.

As the world’s largest producer of sugar and coffee, the severe drought has worried the market about Brazil’s supply, pushing up future coffee prices.

May had the fastest year-on-year growth rate in nearly two and a half years. The pan-European stock index dropped and rose for four straight months in May. The weakness of the U.S. dollar, the offshore renminbi For more than two and a half months, oil distribution was highly variable. Bitcoin rose to nearly 37,000 USD in intraday trading, and ethereum gained almost 20% on the previous day’s decline. Stay on the facts today data and financial events on June 1 (Tuesday);

Q1 of the current Australian account

Manufacturing PMI (Caixin 09:45)

12:30 Aussie June rate

the German monthly retail sales rate in April

15:00 quarter GDP annual rate

value of May manufacturing PMI: 15:50 French

15.55: German seasonal unemployment rate

15:55 Germany manufacturing PMI

European manufacturing PMI, 17:00 local time

Markit Manufacturing PMI: 16:30, UK GMT

Starting at 17:00 In May, the annual CPI rate in the eurozone is not adjusted. reside

17:00 April Eurozone unemployment rate

approximately $23 billion monthly.”

21:45 -PMI Value on May 16, 2014

W 22:00 May PMI Manufacturing

the 17th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial video conference was held

technicals

Gold~1 hour price

You can open the app to see the latest report.

Gold was static yesterday.

Daily-level prices continue to run above the shock range; some support below can be counted on. The bullish signal of the Yang Line has ended. In the short term, prices will rise, and the MACD’s fast and slow lines will increase. At the 1-hour level, the price has formed a short-term high, the trendline has provided some support, and the MACD’s fast and slow lines have increased. Because of this, the gold price is mostly rising. You can find the signal and place your orders when the price moves down toward the trend line. We are at 1912 pre-pressure. XAUUSD trading strategy (go long) Stop loss: around 1900, take profit: 1912-1922 1-hour Silver XAGUSD Silver follows the trend of gold and continues to vary within that range. Under the daily price level, it closed the bullish signal on the Yang small line Raising short-term price. Fast/Slow MACD ready for another golden cross. At the 1-hour level, the price is at a high and varying level. The MACD (Momentum, ADX, and Zero Line) shows continued strength. Today’s silver movement is mostly bullish and upward. We are waiting for the price to fall to the inscribed trend line to see the signal layout and orders. The early high target was 28.7. XAGUSD trading strategy (long) Entry point: 27.9, stop loss: 27.2, and profit: 28.7 to 29.2.

1-hour level crude oil

Yesterday, crude oil had to use the support below to rise.

The daily price increase follows the upward channel but has reached the upper Bollinger band and is being suppressed. With increased upward pressure and a likelihood of a callback, the MACD volume can shrink. Looking at the 1-hour chart, the price rise has encountered the previous upward trend line; the price has repeatedly risen and fallen, and the short-term price will decline. So, today’s crude oil price trend fell mainly. Buyers should be patient, waiting for the price to rebound above the upward trend line before taking a short position. The short-term target shock range is located near 66.1. OPIS trading strategy (short) Stop loss: 68.8, take profit: 66.1-65.4 the 1-hour EURUSD level The euro continued to rise due to the dollar’s rise and fall. The price increased significantly, staying near the 10-day moving average, and closed a bullish signal set by the mid-Yang line. The price continued to grow, and the MACD’s fast and slow-moving average converged on another golden cross. At the 1-hour level, the short-term price trend is in a V-shaped reversal, supported by the inscribed trend line, and the short-term price will rise. As such, the current trend of the euro is mainly up. I will look for a signal setup and orders as the price approaches the inward trendline. At the top of the target earlier

Gold rises as dollar weakens ahead of U.S. Fed meeting

Gold rises as dollar weakens ahead of U.S. Fed meeting,

Gold Spikes To New records As Dollar, Bond Yields Dive

Gold inches higher as dollar loses ground ahead of Fed meeting

Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday as the dollar pulled back from multiweek highs ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s two-day monetary policy meeting.

Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,341.38 as of 0344 GMT.

US gold futures also rose 0.2% to $1,345.20 an ounce.

“The overall sentiment in the gold markets is positive. There are expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates, which has weakened the dollar and remains a main driver for prices,” said Helen Lau, analyst, Argonaut Securities.

The dollar index against basket of major currencies was down 0.1% on Tuesday, making bullion cheaper for investors holding other currencies.

The dollar was somewhat weakened by the New York Fed’s business index showing a record decline in June to its weakest level in more than two and a half years.

At the current price rate, some fluctuations in gold prices are predicted as there are still some mixed views on the rate cut and some investors are cautious ahead of the Fed’s decision, Lau said.

The Fed’s two-day policy meeting starting later on Tuesday is the next major focus after markets have priced in more than two 25 basis-point rate cuts by year-end. That marks a sharp contrast to the Fed’s official forecast in March, which showed policymakers deemed the next move would be a hike.

The expectations of an interest cut have been steadily growing amid the raging US-China trade war, signs of the US economy losing momentum and pressure by President Trump to ease policy.

All these factors encouraged bullion’s appeal, with the precious metal gaining nearly 6% since touching its 2019 low of $1,265.85 in early May.

The US central bank is suspected to leave borrowing costs unchanged this time but probably lay the foundation for a rate cut later in 2019.

“We think that the Fed will not raise rates in June and with regards to policy wording, we could see a slightly less accommodative tone than what the market is expecting,” INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir said in a note. “In which case the dollar could firm up somewhat further and perhaps pressure gold lower into its trading range.”

On the technical front, spot gold may break a support at $1,337 per ounce and fall to the next support at $1,324, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

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Goldman Backs down Perceives Rate Cuts In July And September

We now expect cuts in July and September, as well as an end to balance sheet runoff in July. Our base case is for moves in 25bp increments, but a 50bp cut is possible.

The need to get ahead of the bond market could be another reason to push Fed officials toward a bigger reduction in rates, economists including Jan Hatzius wrote in a note dated June 19. The firm had previously seen no change in rates for this year.

ECB Believe That an interest rate hike at the end of 2019 is too late

Some European Central Bank management committees believe that the interest rate hike at the end of 2019 is too late
20
　　Bloomberg News quoted informed sources said some ECB officials believe that by the end of 2019 and then raise interest rates too late, is more likely to raise interest rates, although any decision depends on the prevailing economic prospects for next year in September or October. The euro regained its earlier decline against the dollar, rising 27 points in the short term and expecting the probability of a rate hike in September to rise to 80%.

　　According to informed sources quoted by Bloomberg, some European central bank officials believe that if the market expects to raise interest rates at the end of 2019, I am afraid it will be too late. It is more likely to raise interest rates in September or October next year, but any decision will depend on the economic outlook at the time.

　　The news directly pushed the euro against the dollar to rise 27 points in the short-term, hitting a high of 1.1666, completely regaining the earlier decline.

　　Although the market still fully calculates the possibility that the benchmark deposit rate will increase by 10 basis points in December 2019, the probability of raising interest rates in September will increase from less than 70% to 80%.

　　Wall Street has mentioned that the European Central Bank’s policy meeting in mid-June maintained the three major interest rates unchanged, announcing that it will completely close the net bond purchase project in December this year, but will keep interest rates unchanged “at least until the end of summer in 2019”.

　　Although the QE volume-wide project had a definitive conclusion at the end of the project, the wording of the interest rate triggered the market doves to interpret the euro, and the euro fell more than 1% in the short-term, and the eurozone government bond yield led by German debt fell sharply.

　　The ECB management committee member and Taiwan central bank Governor Vitas Vasiliauskas later said that the forward-looking guidance on interest rates should be understood as: no interest rate increase until the end of September next year, and the suspense of raising interest rates will be left to 2019 10 Policy meetings for the month and December.

　　Bloomberg commented that the timing of the ECB’s interest rate hike has become more important as the QE net bond-financing timeline has no suspense. On Tuesday, ECB chief economist Peter Praet also said that interest rates will play a central role in the future major policy instruments, which means that interest rate decisions will set the tone for the European Central Bank’s monetary easing after the financial crisis.

　　In addition, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who is known as the “Dove”, will step down on October 31, 2019. Some analysts pointed out that the policy meeting in September or October next year will also be the last of Draghi. Window to adjust post-crisis policies.

　　France Paribas economist said this week the European Central Bank also adjusted its June policy statement on interest rates commitment (rate pledge) French, German and

　　It is worth noting that the yield curve of the national debt of major countries in the eurozone has also become flatter.

　　According to Reuters, the two-year and 10-year German bond yield spreads fell to a one-year flat on Wednesday, to 97 basis points, 10 years and 30 years, as the European Central Bank sent a signal focused on buying long-term bonds. Bond yield spreads have narrowed by 10 basis points in the past week.

　　In addition, France’s 30-year borrowing costs are close to 18 months, and the 10-year and 30-year Italian bond yield spread narrowed by 18 basis points to 74 basis points in the past week.

After The Fed’s Meeting: four interest rate hikes are expected to detonate the market

The minutes after the Fed meeting, a countdown began for four interest rate hikes which are expected to detonate the market

　　The Fed will announce the minutes of the June FOMC policy meeting at 02:00 am Beijing time on Friday (July 6), and discussions on how US interest rates should rise may become the focus. Discussions about inflation may provide some clues to raising interest rates.

　　The minutes of the meeting may also indicate that officials debated the growing dispute between the United States and its major trading partners, the dollar’s strength and the risk of flattening the yield curve. These concerns may curb expectations of accelerating the pace of interest rate hikes.

　　At a press conference after the meeting, Fed Chairman Powell poured a cold water on the idea that policymakers can accurately measure the level of interest rate impact on the economy, and it is the key to deciding when to stop raising interest rates. But Joseph Song, a senior US economist at Bank of America, said this would not stop discussions between policymakers.

　　Song said: “This is still what they are trying to estimate, but it is still an important part of the policy line. It is significant to know the scope of this expectation and whether the Fed believes it can reach this level.”

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　　As the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 2000, the inflation rate rebounded to the 2% target, officials raised the target range of the benchmark federal funds rate to 1.75% to 2%, and announced at the meeting last month. New forecast.

　　The Federal Open Market Committee raised the median forecast for a 2018 rate hike from three to four, although this situation was caused by an unidentified official changing his or her predictions. Neutral expectations have not changed and remain at 2.9%.

　　Song pointed out that the minutes of the meeting “may fall back to some of the hawkish effects expected in June.”

　　Whether the Fed will raise interest rates once or twice during the year is likely to depend on actual inflation data and inflation expectations. The Fed has repeatedly mentioned “symmetric” inflation targets in the past two statements, which many believe is a sign that policymakers can tolerate inflation slightly above the target.

　　In May, the Fed’s annual price increase index reached 2.3%. Gus Faucher, the chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, pointed out that although the meeting was held before the inflation data was released, Friday’s meeting minutes may provide some signals of how Fed officials will respond to higher inflation.

The FED & BOE Move The Markets

The U.S. and the U.K.’s central banks will hold their monthly sessions this week to decide where to set key interest rates. Investors worldwide will be watching these key events closely as they can significantly affect USD and GBP pairs*

The EUR/USD climbed after the U.S. Federal Reserve voted to leave rates unchanged at 1.25% last month, highlighting “solid” economic growth. This left room for another rate hike in December, with analysts claiming that a rate hike is highly likely this month, pricing in the odds at 100%, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

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As expected, the Bank of England increased interest rates in November, marking the first rate hike in the last decade. Specifically, the BoE increased the benchmark interest rate from a record low of 0.25% to 0.50%, effectively reversing the last rate cut after the Brexit referendum. However, the rate hike was widely anticipated, which led to a sterling sell-off and caused the EURGBP to rally.

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What do the analysts expect this month?

Release Forecast* Previous*

FED Interest Rate Decision 1.50% 1.25%

BOE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%

*Table source: investing.com

How might the Forex Markets be affected?

A generally hawkish stance and a higher-than-expected key interest rate can be considered positive/bullish for USD and GBP pairs.*

OR

A dovish monetary outlook and a lower-than-expected rate will have a negative/bearish effect on USD and GBP pairs.*