The minutes after the Fed meeting, a countdown began for four interest rate hikes which are expected to detonate the market
The Fed will announce the minutes of the June FOMC policy meeting at 02:00 am Beijing time on Friday (July 6), and discussions on how US interest rates should rise may become the focus. Discussions about inflation may provide some clues to raising interest rates.
The minutes of the meeting may also indicate that officials debated the growing dispute between the United States and its major trading partners, the dollar’s strength and the risk of flattening the yield curve. These concerns may curb expectations of accelerating the pace of interest rate hikes.
At a press conference after the meeting, Fed Chairman Powell poured a cold water on the idea that policymakers can accurately measure the level of interest rate impact on the economy, and it is the key to deciding when to stop raising interest rates. But Joseph Song, a senior US economist at Bank of America, said this would not stop discussions between policymakers.
Song said: “This is still what they are trying to estimate, but it is still an important part of the policy line. It is significant to know the scope of this expectation and whether the Fed believes it can reach this level.”
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As the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 2000, the inflation rate rebounded to the 2% target, officials raised the target range of the benchmark federal funds rate to 1.75% to 2%, and announced at the meeting last month. New forecast.
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the median forecast for a 2018 rate hike from three to four, although this situation was caused by an unidentified official changing his or her predictions. Neutral expectations have not changed and remain at 2.9%.
Song pointed out that the minutes of the meeting “may fall back to some of the hawkish effects expected in June.”
Whether the Fed will raise interest rates once or twice during the year is likely to depend on actual inflation data and inflation expectations. The Fed has repeatedly mentioned “symmetric” inflation targets in the past two statements, which many believe is a sign that policymakers can tolerate inflation slightly above the target.
In May, the Fed’s annual price increase index reached 2.3%. Gus Faucher, the chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, pointed out that although the meeting was held before the inflation data was released, Friday’s meeting minutes may provide some signals of how Fed officials will respond to higher inflation.