Some European Central Bank management committees believe that the interest rate hike at the end of 2019 is too late
Bloomberg News quoted informed sources said some ECB officials believe that by the end of 2019 and then raise interest rates too late, is more likely to raise interest rates, although any decision depends on the prevailing economic prospects for next year in September or October. The euro regained its earlier decline against the dollar, rising 27 points in the short term and expecting the probability of a rate hike in September to rise to 80%.
According to informed sources quoted by Bloomberg, some European central bank officials believe that if the market expects to raise interest rates at the end of 2019, I am afraid it will be too late. It is more likely to raise interest rates in September or October next year, but any decision will depend on the economic outlook at the time.
The news directly pushed the euro against the dollar to rise 27 points in the short-term, hitting a high of 1.1666, completely regaining the earlier decline.
Although the market still fully calculates the possibility that the benchmark deposit rate will increase by 10 basis points in December 2019, the probability of raising interest rates in September will increase from less than 70% to 80%.
Wall Street has mentioned that the European Central Bank’s policy meeting in mid-June maintained the three major interest rates unchanged, announcing that it will completely close the net bond purchase project in December this year, but will keep interest rates unchanged “at least until the end of summer in 2019”.
Although the QE volume-wide project had a definitive conclusion at the end of the project, the wording of the interest rate triggered the market doves to interpret the euro, and the euro fell more than 1% in the short-term, and the eurozone government bond yield led by German debt fell sharply.
The ECB management committee member and Taiwan central bank Governor Vitas Vasiliauskas later said that the forward-looking guidance on interest rates should be understood as: no interest rate increase until the end of September next year, and the suspense of raising interest rates will be left to 2019 10 Policy meetings for the month and December.
Bloomberg commented that the timing of the ECB’s interest rate hike has become more important as the QE net bond-financing timeline has no suspense. On Tuesday, ECB chief economist Peter Praet also said that interest rates will play a central role in the future major policy instruments, which means that interest rate decisions will set the tone for the European Central Bank’s monetary easing after the financial crisis.
In addition, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who is known as the “Dove”, will step down on October 31, 2019. Some analysts pointed out that the policy meeting in September or October next year will also be the last of Draghi. Window to adjust post-crisis policies.
France Paribas economist said this week the European Central Bank also adjusted its June policy statement on interest rates commitment (rate pledge) French, German and
It is worth noting that the yield curve of the national debt of major countries in the eurozone has also become flatter.
According to Reuters, the two-year and 10-year German bond yield spreads fell to a one-year flat on Wednesday, to 97 basis points, 10 years and 30 years, as the European Central Bank sent a signal focused on buying long-term bonds. Bond yield spreads have narrowed by 10 basis points in the past week.
In addition, France’s 30-year borrowing costs are close to 18 months, and the 10-year and 30-year Italian bond yield spread narrowed by 18 basis points to 74 basis points in the past week.