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THURSDAY, APRIL 1st

Following the release of President Biden’s infrastructure spending plan, the equity markets extended recent gains and reached new all-time highs on Wednesday. A bill worth upwards of $2 trillion includes a tax increase that Wall Street expected to fund the plan within 15 years despite the idea of higher taxes. Despite the higher taxes, the news could turn into a news event that is easy to sell.

Other news includes solid economic data, which points toward a robust Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. ADP’s Employment report released on Wednesday shows that the number of new jobs increased by over 500,000 in March and was matched by a similar reading on Chicago PMI, which rose 7 points to surpass consensus estimates by 6 points and surge to its highest level since 2017.

stainless steel runs smoothly and nickel demand is still guaranteed

Stainless steel runs smoothly and nickel demand remains strong.

At the macro level, economic expectations are heating up, domestic economic conditions are improving, and market sentiment is optimistic.

In terms of industry, nickel ore supplies are tight and the price remains high. Ferronickel plants do not wish to ship goods at a loss, while stainless steel orders are good and prices remain stable

In general, the demand for nickel in the downstream industry is still guaranteed, and the Shanghai nickel market should not be pessimistic. The reference range of Shanghai Nickel 2102 contract is 115,000-123,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range of SS2102 contract is 1,3000-13600 yuan/ton.

In terms of operation, Shanghai nickel is long on dips, while stainless steel is on the sidelines.

Uncertainty risks: epidemic development, overseas economic stimulus policies, nickel resource imports, changes in stainless steel capacity utilization

One

Market review

Nickel prices dropped overall this week. Although the macro environment is generally positive, the continuous rise of the metal sector in the early stage has caused a phased correction in the sector, which has brought certain pressure on the nickel price. In addition, the industry is generally stable and there is no obvious good news for the time being. The transaction price of ferronickel is still at a low level, only nickel ore still has support.

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two

Analysis of price influence factors

1. Macro aspect

1.1. Overseas: Fiscal policy is expected to heat up, and the macro environment continues to warm up

Pfizer halved vaccine production in half a year, which once disturbed the market. OPEC’s production growth slowed down, and rising oil prices pushed up inflation expectations.

US President-elect Joe Biden nominated former Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen as a candidate for finance minister, is conducive to the subsequent fiscal policies. The two parties in the United States jointly proposed a fiscal stimulus agreement, and the probability of fiscal stimulus increased during the year. U.S. manufacturing data has fallen, non-agricultural employment has been significantly lower than expected, the impact of the second outbreak of the epidemic is showing, and it

On the macro level, expectations of overseas fiscal stimulus heat up, the domestic economy continues to improve, and market sentiment tends to be optimistic. In terms of industry, the supply of nickel ore is tight and the prices remain high. Ferronickel plants are not willing to ship goods at a loss, and stainless steel orders are better and prices remain stable. In general, the demand for nickel in the downstream industry is still guaranteed, and the Shanghai nickel market should not be pessimistic. The reference range of Shanghai Nickel 2102 contract is 115,000-123,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range of SS2102 contract is 1,3000-13600 yuan/ton.

In terms of operation, Shanghai nickel is long on dips, while stainless steel is on the sidelines.

(Editor in charge: Chen Zhuang)

Gold remains unchanged around 1254-6 crude oil continues dropping to 47

2018-12-19 14:16:23 and News Network
　　Yesterday, the gold market did not continue, it is still a range of shocks, fluctuations around the 1245-50 range, but the crude oil is very fierce, the US plate fell again, the lowest to 46 first-line, a single-day drop of 8%, really makes people happy.

　　Most people like trends, but most people are exploding in the trend.

　　Such of gold, continuous shocks, fluctuations in the range, small price fluctuations, and high repeatability, it is difficult to break the position in gold these months. Still, crude oil, I think many people will have headaches. If you are not careful, you will return to liberation one night.

　　Often talk about the trend, in the trend, don’t guess the bottom, but many people can’t stop the temptation of price, think that the decline is too significant, the chance of bargain-hunting is coming. Or the daily line receives the Yin. The turn is yang. This is a kind of speculation, forgetting that the more significant the decline, the weaker the trend, and the greater the decline, the market is the actual short.

　　For more than a month, in the group of students, almost every day, the trend of crude oil is recommended to be weak, and crude oil is used as a symbol of learning. To move to profit, the greater strength in the downturn is not the key to changing direction, but only to fix short positions.

　　On these two days, we will summarize the points for you, and we must remember:

　　1, the low position in the weak sideways, must not stop falling, but the weak consolidation, the bottom of the test is not supported, but the lack of support, the probability of breaking high.

　　2, the weak Bolian Yin, the most basic signal, the first Yin after the Yang Xian, must continue to fall.

　　3, when there is a large amount of counter-pumping in the fall, do not think it is bottoming out. The anti-pumping force is considerable, just a short correction.

　　4, the daily line continues to fall, is a steep decline, this trend, there will be a second wave of decline, the rebound is also empty.

　　The gold market is different, continuous shocks, interval operation, and low price fluctuations, so in this market, give you a summary:

　　1, do not chase the single; chase the single no profit.

　　2, do not believe in breakthroughs; breakthroughs do not continue.

　　3, try to find a relatively safe double top and double bottom trading.

　　4, refer to the front strength to layout the trend.

　　So, you will understand that gold is slow and volatile, and crude oil is falling.

　　I remembered a few days ago. I summed up the sentence: the inexhaustible crude oil, the gold that can’t afford it. It probably describes the current state.

　　So today, gold continues to see more shocks.

Gold looks stable around 1254-6 unchanged crude oil 47 continues slipping.

　　Today we will take 4 hours to look at it.

　　1, yesterday, the price of the second test 1245 back pumping, forming double bottom support, this is the lifeline and watershed of today’s bulls.

　　2, the price encountered resistance in the early high point around 1250 and sideways shocks.

　　3, early bottom detection continues to consolidate in the 1250 line.

　　Today’s market is relatively simple. It is difficult to suppress the retreat, and the rise will not be withdrawn.

　　In other words, the ups and downs are from now on.

　　Yesterday evening we suggested 1247.5-48 more than one, and today we can continue to hold the target 1255-6 line.

　　In addition, the short position is also recommended in more than 1248, breaking 1244 damage, the target remains unchanged.

　　In addition, if there is no breakthrough in the suppression of the day, then retreat again, do not consider more than 1244-5, this position is suppressed, it is challenging to rise.

　　In terms of short selling, we need to wait for the evening. The daily line has been relying on the moving averages to rise slowly. We are worried that there will be an outbreak, and we will not consider it in the day.

　　On the wild side, today is the second day after the bottom, and the daily line has fallen for three consecutive days.

　　Note that the bottom is instead the short release, which will speed up the arrival of the bottom. Usually, 2-3 days after falling below the previous low, you can’t hit the air.

　　According to the current form, the air can be used for up to 1-2 days, and the crude oil will have a back pumping.

　　Therefore, this must remind everyone that there is no problem in the air, but we must not die, but we must take a reasonable stop loss and rationally bearish.

　　Crude oil still has two points today:

　　1,47 line small, 47.4 plus, loss 47.7, target 45.80-60.

　　2, see if the morning breaks the bottom, the bottom is similar to yesterday’s form, and you can choose the radical direct layout in the afternoon.

How long will it take for the European banks’ monetary policy to normalize?

　　On Thursday (September 13th), the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it will maintain the three key interest rates unchanged. It will maintain a monthly debt purchase of 30 billion euros until the end of September 2018. It will end its purchase in December 2018 and will maintain The current key interest rate remains unchanged until at least the summer of 2019.

　　At the same time, the European Central Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2018 and 2019, maintaining inflation expectations for the next three years. It is expected that the GDP growth rate of the Eurozone in 2018 will be 2%, the previous value is 2.1%; the GDP growth rate is expected to be 1.8% in 2019, and the previous value is 1.9%.

　　In addition, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the downside of economic expectations is due to weak external demand, and the euro zone’s economic growth has been higher than the potential growth rate for some time. At present, domestic cost pressures are constantly tiring, and protectionism and emerging market risks are prominent.

　　However, at the subsequent press conference, Draghi “changed his face” and unexpectedly released positive comments, expressing his willingness to watch the inflation outlook, saying that the uncertainty of the inflation outlook is declining, and inflation is moving closer to our goal, even if QE is over. Inflation can still move closer to 2%, and core inflation levels will rise before the end of the year.

　　During Draghi’s press conference, the euro/ dollar reversed the previous decline, and the short-term sharp rise of 90 points, breaking the 1.17 mark for the first time on August 30.

　　On Friday (September 14), Rabobank analysts pointed out that the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy normalization still has a long way to go. So the next risk is that when the next recession comes, the ECB has little room to act.

　　The Dutch Cooperative Bank pointed out that if this is the case, it will depend on whether the fiscal policy at the time can stabilize the economy. At present, most countries in the Eurozone do not seem to have enough fiscal space to properly carry out this task, which may increase the impact of the next recession.

　　At the same time, the bank’s analysts pointed out that the current eurozone debt ratio and budget balance show that compared with the pre-crisis 2007, the financial situation of the eurozone countries has not improved or even worse.

　　In addition, the Dutch cooperative bank pointed out that given the current economic performance of the eurozone countries, it is now a buffer. Unfortunately, however, European fiscal rules are ineffective in forcing countries to significantly increase their savings during the boom.

Experts Claim The dollar will rise even higher!

Experts Claim The dollar will rise even higher! Recommended selling assets in Europe and emerging markets.

　　Rob Citrone, a hedge fund manager and head of Discovery Capital Management, said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday that he believes the European market is brewing a bubble and investors should sell assets in the region.
　　Citrone reiterated his concerns about the sustainability of Italian debt and populism in the region.

　　He is also shorting Turkish assets and is bearish on the Mexican and South African markets. He said that in addition to India and Argentina, investors should “sell all out” of emerging market assets. He said that as the second largest economy in South America, the Argentine currency has depreciated by 50% this year, but although it has been hit, it is still “very attractive” for fund managers.
Citrone said that in the long run, the US trade tariffs are a “big problem” for the Chinese market. He said, “I think the market will see some rebound in the short term, but we believe that tariffs will come. This is not a short-term issue. ”Download the app Read this article for more in-depth coverage
　　Citrone said that in the long run, the US trade tariffs are a “big problem” for the Chinese market. He said, “I think the market will see some rebound in the short term, but we believe that tariffs will come. This is not a short-term issue. ”

　　Citrone insists that the dollar will strengthen and that he is optimistic about US assets. “We prefer the United States to the rest of the world,” he said. “This is the best place to invest in the world.”

The FED & BOE Move The Markets

The U.S. and the U.K.’s central banks will hold their monthly sessions this week to decide where to set key interest rates. Investors worldwide will be watching these key events closely as they can significantly affect USD and GBP pairs*

The EUR/USD climbed after the U.S. Federal Reserve voted to leave rates unchanged at 1.25% last month, highlighting “solid” economic growth. This left room for another rate hike in December, with analysts claiming that a rate hike is highly likely this month, pricing in the odds at 100%, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

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As expected, the Bank of England increased interest rates in November, marking the first rate hike in the last decade. Specifically, the BoE increased the benchmark interest rate from a record low of 0.25% to 0.50%, effectively reversing the last rate cut after the Brexit referendum. However, the rate hike was widely anticipated, which led to a sterling sell-off and caused the EURGBP to rally.

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What do the analysts expect this month?

Release Forecast* Previous*

FED Interest Rate Decision 1.50% 1.25%

BOE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%

*Table source: investing.com

How might the Forex Markets be affected?

A generally hawkish stance and a higher-than-expected key interest rate can be considered positive/bullish for USD and GBP pairs.*

A dovish monetary outlook and a lower-than-expected rate will have a negative/bearish effect on USD and GBP pairs.*