Gold remains unchanged around 1254-6 crude oil continues dropping to 47

2018-12-19 14:16:23 and News Network
  Yesterday, the gold market did not continue, it is still a range of shocks, fluctuations around the 1245-50 range, but the crude oil is very fierce, the US plate fell again, the lowest to 46 first-line, a single-day drop of 8%, really makes people happy.

  In fact, most people like trends, but most people are exploding in the trend.

  Such as gold, continuous shocks, fluctuations in the range, small price fluctuations, and high repeatability, these months, it is difficult to break the position in gold, but crude oil, I think many people will have headaches. If you are not careful, you will return to liberation one night.

  Often talk about the trend, in the trend, don’t guess the bottom, but many people can’t stop the temptation of price, think that the decline is too big, the chance of bargain-hunting is coming. Or the daily line receives the yin, the turn is yang, this is a kind of speculation, forgetting that the bigger the decline, the weaker the trend, and the greater the decline, the market is the real short.

  For more than a month, in the group of students, almost every day, the trend of crude oil is recommended to be weak, and crude oil is used as a symbol of learning. In order to move to profit, the greater strength in the downturn is not the key to changing direction, but only to fix short positions.

  On these two days, we will summarize the points for you, and we must remember:

  1, the low position in the weak sideways, must not stop falling, but the weak consolidation, the bottom of the test is not supported, but the lack of support, the probability of breaking high.

  2, the weak Bolian Yin, this is the most basic signal, the first Yin after the Yang Xian, must continue to fall.

  3, in the fall, when there is a large amount of counter-pumping, do not think that it is bottoming out, the anti-pumping force is big, just a short correction.

  4, the daily line continues to fall, is a vertical decline, this trend, there will be a second wave of decline, the rebound is also empty.

  The gold market is different, continuous shocks, interval operation, and low price fluctuations, so in this market, give you a summary:

  1, do not chase the single, chase the single no profit.

  2, do not believe in breakthroughs, breakthroughs do not continue.

  3, try to find a double top and double bottom trading, relatively safe.

  4, try to refer to the front strength, to layout the trend.

  So, you will understand that gold is slow and volatile, and crude oil is falling.

  I remember a few days ago, I summed up the sentence: the inexhaustible crude oil, the gold that can’t afford it. Probably describes the current state.

  So today, gold continues to see more shocks.

Gold looks stable around 1254-6 unchanged crude oil 47 continues slipping.

  Today we will take 4 hours to look at it.

  1, yesterday, the price of the second test 1245 back pumping, forming double bottom support, this is the lifeline and watershed of today’s bulls.

  2, the price encountered resistance in the early high point around 1250 and sideways shocks.

  3, early detection of the bottom, continue to consolidate in the 1250 line.

  Today’s market is obviously relatively simple. It is difficult to suppress the retreat and the rise will not be withdrawn.

  In other words, the ups and downs are from now on.

  Yesterday evening we suggested 1247.5-48 more than one, and today we can continue to hold, the target 1255-6 line.

  In addition, the short position is also recommended in more than 1248, breaking 1244 damage, the target remains unchanged.

  In addition, if there is no breakthrough in the suppression of the day, then retreat again, do not consider more than 1244-5, this position is suppressed, it is difficult to rise.

  In terms of short selling, we need to wait for the evening. The daily line has been relying on the moving averages to rise slowly. We are worried that there will be an outbreak and we will not consider it in the day.

  On the crude side, today is the second day after the bottom, and the daily line has fallen for three consecutive days.

  Note that the bottom is instead the short release, which will speed up the arrival of the bottom. Usually 2-3 days after falling below the previous low, you can’t hit the air.

  According to the current form, the air can be used for up to 1-2 days, and the crude oil will have a back pumping.

  Therefore, this needs to remind everyone that there is no problem in the air, but we must not die, but we must take a good stop loss and rationally bearish.

  Crude oil still has two points today:

  1,47 line small, 47.4 plus, loss 47.7, target 45.80-60.

  2, see if the morning breaks the bottom, the bottom is similar to yesterday’s form, and you can choose the radical direct layout in the afternoon.

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How long will it take for the European banks’ monetary policy to normalize?

  On Thursday (September 13th), the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it will maintain the three key interest rates unchanged. It will maintain a monthly debt purchase of 30 billion euros until the end of September 2018. It will end its purchase in December 2018 and will maintain The current key interest rate remains unchanged until at least the summer of 2019.

  At the same time, the European Central Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2018 and 2019, maintaining inflation expectations for the next three years. It is expected that the GDP growth rate of the Eurozone in 2018 will be 2%, the previous value is 2.1%; the GDP growth rate is expected to be 1.8% in 2019, and the previous value is 1.9%.

  In addition, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the downside of economic expectations is due to weak external demand, and the euro zone’s economic growth has been higher than the potential growth rate for some time. At present, domestic cost pressures are constantly tiring, and protectionism and emerging market risks are prominent.

  However, at the subsequent press conference, Draghi “changed his face” and unexpectedly released positive comments, expressing his willingness to watch the inflation outlook, saying that the uncertainty of the inflation outlook is declining, and inflation is moving closer to our goal, even if QE is over. Inflation can still move closer to 2%, and core inflation levels will rise before the end of the year.

  During Draghi’s press conference, the euro/ dollar reversed the previous decline, and the short-term sharp rise of 90 points, breaking the 1.17 mark for the first time on August 30.

  On Friday (September 14), Rabobank analysts pointed out that the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy normalization still has a long way to go. So the next risk is that when the next recession comes, the ECB has little room to act.

  The Dutch Cooperative Bank pointed out that if this is the case, it will depend on whether the fiscal policy at the time can stabilize the economy. At present, most countries in the Eurozone do not seem to have enough fiscal space to properly carry out this task, which may increase the impact of the next recession.

  At the same time, the bank’s analysts pointed out that the current eurozone debt ratio and budget balance show that compared with the pre-crisis 2007, the financial situation of the eurozone countries has not improved or even worse.

  In addition, the Dutch cooperative bank pointed out that given the current economic performance of the eurozone countries, it is now a buffer. Unfortunately, however, European fiscal rules are ineffective in forcing countries to significantly increase their savings during the boom.

Experts Claim The dollar will rise even higher!

Experts Claim The dollar will rise even higher! Recommended selling assets in Europe and emerging markets.

  Rob Citrone, a hedge fund manager and head of Discovery Capital Management, said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday that he believes the European market is brewing a bubble and investors should sell assets in the region.
  Citrone reiterated his concerns about the sustainability of Italian debt and populism in the region.

  He is also shorting Turkish assets and is bearish on the Mexican and South African markets. He said that in addition to India and Argentina, investors should “sell all out” of emerging market assets. He said that as the second largest economy in South America, the Argentine currency has depreciated by 50% this year, but although it has been hit, it is still “very attractive” for fund managers.
Citrone said that in the long run, the US trade tariffs are a “big problem” for the Chinese market. He said, “I think the market will see some rebound in the short term, but we believe that tariffs will come. This is not a short-term issue. ”Download the app Read this article for more in-depth coverage
  Citrone said that in the long run, the US trade tariffs are a “big problem” for the Chinese market. He said, “I think the market will see some rebound in the short term, but we believe that tariffs will come. This is not a short-term issue. ”

  Citrone insists that the dollar will strengthen and that he is optimistic about US assets. “We prefer the United States to the rest of the world,” he said. “This is the best place to invest in the world.”

Are CFDs taxable in the UK?

Investors trading contracts for difference in the UK are not exempt from capital gains tax
Capital Gains Tax is a tax on the profit when you sell an asset that has increased in value.
Capital Gain Taxes are paid on the sum of gains above an annual tax-free allowance.
basic rate Income Tax
The Tax rate is 20% on your gains from other chargeable assets

Fed’s monetary policy report: The economy is improving, and the gradual rate hike is still the main issue

on Friday (July 13), the Fed disclosed a semi-annual monetary policy report submitted to Congress. The report is generally optimistic. The report said that the US economic growth was strong in the first half of this year, and the Fed is expected to continue to raise interest rates gradually . Due to the expected wording of the report, the US dollar and gold did not respond significantly.

  This is from Bao Weier second document since early February at the helm of the Fed, the Fed submitted to Congress. Powell is scheduled to answer questions about Congress next Tuesday and next Wednesday.

The 63-page report is in line with current expectations as detailed by the Fed at the policy meeting, that is, strong economic growth and low unemployment require a rate hike, but the lack of severe inflationary pressures means that it can maintain a gradual rate hike.Download the app Read this article for more in-depth coverage
  The 63-page report is in line with current expectations as detailed by the Fed at the policy meeting, that is, strong economic growth and low unemployment require a rate hike, but the lack of severe inflationary pressures means that it can maintain a gradual rate hike.

  The Fed said in the report that in the first half of this year, the overall economic activity of the United States seems to have grown steadily, and the economy continues to be supported by favorable consumer and business confidence. In the first half of the year, household wealth increased, foreign economic growth was stable, and domestic financial conditions were loose.

  Therefore, the Fed expects that “interest rates will gradually increase” is appropriate. The Fed is currently striving to continue to promote economic expansion. This round of expansion is the second longest economic expansion in history.

  The Fed said that the Trump administration’s tax cuts may lead to a rebound in consumer spending from a downturn and may provide modest boosts for this year’s economic growth.

  Powell mentioned in an interview on Thursday that the US economy is relatively optimistic. He said that he believes that the US economy is still in a “very good position” and that recent government tax and spending plans may boost GDP growth within three years.

  Since the tightening cycle began in December 2015, the Fed has raised interest rates seven times, and recently raised the benchmark interest rate by another 25 percentage points in mid-June. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates twice before the end of the year.

  In addition, Fed policy makers once again stated in the report that wage growth has been weaker than expected given the current unemployment rate of 4%. If labor demand is still strong, more workers in the golden age will enter the labor market. Wage growth may be under pressure due to weak productivity, and the labor market is still likely to be further slack.

  Focus on the impact of trade protectionism

  The report mentions the Trump administration’s trade protectionist policy. Although there was no discussion, the report stated that “although there is not a lot of pressure, uncertainty is a concern of financial markets.”

  Many policymakers expressed concern about trade disputes with major allies, and Powell said on Thursday that high tariffs on products and services could damage the economy.

  Earlier announced US July University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value of 97.1, less than expected 98, due to consumer concerns about trade protectionism. After the data was released, the US dollar index fell in a short-term.

  Curtin, head of consumer research at the University of Michigan, said that consumer confidence declined in early July, but it was almost the same as the average of the previous 12 months. The current decline in consumer confidence is due to growing concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on the domestic economy. They are worried about the future economic growth rate and rising inflation.

  After the Fed disclosed the report, there was no significant fluctuation in the market. Mainly because the tone and content of the report are basically consistent with the contents of the previous Fed policy meeting.

  After the disclosure of the report, the US dollar and gold did not respond significantly. As of press time, the US dollar index was 94.7902, a decrease of 0.02%; spot gold is now reported at 1242.46 US dollars / ounce, an increase of 0.4%.

ECB Believe That an interest rate hike at the end of 2019 is too late

Some European Central Bank management committees believe that the interest rate hike at the end of 2019 is too late
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  Bloomberg News quoted informed sources said some ECB officials believe that by the end of 2019 and then raise interest rates too late, is more likely to raise interest rates, although any decision depends on the prevailing economic prospects for next year in September or October. The euro regained its earlier decline against the dollar, rising 27 points in the short term and expecting the probability of a rate hike in September to rise to 80%.

  According to informed sources quoted by Bloomberg, some European central bank officials believe that if the market expects to raise interest rates at the end of 2019, I am afraid it will be too late. It is more likely to raise interest rates in September or October next year, but any decision will depend on the economic outlook at the time.

  The news directly pushed the euro against the dollar to rise 27 points in the short-term, hitting a high of 1.1666, completely regaining the earlier decline.

  Although the market still fully calculates the possibility that the benchmark deposit rate will increase by 10 basis points in December 2019, the probability of raising interest rates in September will increase from less than 70% to 80%.

  Wall Street has mentioned that the European Central Bank’s policy meeting in mid-June maintained the three major interest rates unchanged, announcing that it will completely close the net bond purchase project in December this year, but will keep interest rates unchanged “at least until the end of summer in 2019”.

  Although the QE volume-wide project had a definitive conclusion at the end of the project, the wording of the interest rate triggered the market doves to interpret the euro, and the euro fell more than 1% in the short-term, and the eurozone government bond yield led by German debt fell sharply.

  The ECB management committee member and Taiwan central bank Governor Vitas Vasiliauskas later said that the forward-looking guidance on interest rates should be understood as: no interest rate increase until the end of September next year, and the suspense of raising interest rates will be left to 2019 10 Policy meetings for the month and December.

  Bloomberg commented that the timing of the ECB’s interest rate hike has become more important as the QE net bond-financing timeline has no suspense. On Tuesday, ECB chief economist Peter Praet also said that interest rates will play a central role in the future major policy instruments, which means that interest rate decisions will set the tone for the European Central Bank’s monetary easing after the financial crisis.

  In addition, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who is known as the “Dove”, will step down on October 31, 2019. Some analysts pointed out that the policy meeting in September or October next year will also be the last of Draghi. Window to adjust post-crisis policies.

  France Paribas economist said this week the European Central Bank also adjusted its June policy statement on interest rates commitment (rate pledge) French, German and

  It is worth noting that the yield curve of the national debt of major countries in the eurozone has also become flatter.

  According to Reuters, the two-year and 10-year German bond yield spreads fell to a one-year flat on Wednesday, to 97 basis points, 10 years and 30 years, as the European Central Bank sent a signal focused on buying long-term bonds. Bond yield spreads have narrowed by 10 basis points in the past week.

  In addition, France’s 30-year borrowing costs are close to 18 months, and the 10-year and 30-year Italian bond yield spread narrowed by 18 basis points to 74 basis points in the past week.

After The Fed’s Meeting: four interest rate hikes are expected to detonate the market

The minutes after the Fed meeting, a countdown began for four interest rate hikes which are expected to detonate the market

  The Fed will announce the minutes of the June FOMC policy meeting at 02:00 am Beijing time on Friday (July 6), and discussions on how US interest rates should rise may become the focus. Discussions about inflation may provide some clues to raising interest rates.

  The minutes of the meeting may also indicate that officials debated the growing dispute between the United States and its major trading partners, the dollar’s strength and the risk of flattening the yield curve. These concerns may curb expectations of accelerating the pace of interest rate hikes.

  At a press conference after the meeting, Fed Chairman Powell poured a cold water on the idea that policymakers can accurately measure the level of interest rate impact on the economy, and it is the key to deciding when to stop raising interest rates. But Joseph Song, a senior US economist at Bank of America, said this would not stop discussions between policymakers.

  Song said: “This is still what they are trying to estimate, but it is still an important part of the policy line. It is significant to know the scope of this expectation and whether the Fed believes it can reach this level.”

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  As the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 2000, the inflation rate rebounded to the 2% target, officials raised the target range of the benchmark federal funds rate to 1.75% to 2%, and announced at the meeting last month. New forecast.

  The Federal Open Market Committee raised the median forecast for a 2018 rate hike from three to four, although this situation was caused by an unidentified official changing his or her predictions. Neutral expectations have not changed and remain at 2.9%.

  Song pointed out that the minutes of the meeting “may fall back to some of the hawkish effects expected in June.”

  Whether the Fed will raise interest rates once or twice during the year is likely to depend on actual inflation data and inflation expectations. The Fed has repeatedly mentioned “symmetric” inflation targets in the past two statements, which many believe is a sign that policymakers can tolerate inflation slightly above the target.

  In May, the Fed’s annual price increase index reached 2.3%. Gus Faucher, the chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, pointed out that although the meeting was held before the inflation data was released, Friday’s meeting minutes may provide some signals of how Fed officials will respond to higher inflation.

Investment bank reveals why the recent rebound in gold prices is expected to hit $1,300 during the year.

According to TD Securities, after a near one-year low in June, gold prices are expected to recover and continue to rise in the remaining months of the summer. The lack of “fuel” in the iterative trade war and the weakening of the dollar are factors that support the price of gold.

  TD Securities Global Strategy Director Bart Melek wrote in a report released on Monday (July 9): “The price of gold is expected to exceed $1,270 per ounce in the summer. In fact, if the price of gold rises in the last three months of 2018 We are not surprised by $1300/oz.”

  Melek pointed out that gold has started to recover last week, and COMEX August gold futures rose from $1,240 per ounce to around $1,260 per ounce.

  Melek wrote: “The weaker dollar, lack of interest in risky assets and the decline in long-term bond yields were key factors in the rise in gold prices last week. The bond yield curve was further flattened, which triggered a possible end to the current US economic expansion. Guessing and worrying, this is another important reason why gold prices have performed relatively well in recent days.”

  The report emphasizes that in the short term, some market speculators may recover their hawkish prospects on the issue of the Federal Reserve’s (FED) tightening of monetary policy, which will benefit the gold price.

  Melek added that the strength of emerging market currencies will also play a key role in boosting gold prices this summer.

  At the same time, Melek expects that as the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares to raise interest rates, the dollar’s gains will fall back, which is another good sign of gold.

Daniel Ghali, a commodities strategist at TD Securities, pointed out that investors may turn their attention to macroeconomic data as the trade war between China and the US has not been seriously upgraded this week.

  Ghali writes: “US inflation data may become the focus of precious metals traders, CPI and PPI will be released this week. But in addition to macro data, with US President Trump visiting Europe, market participants may also pay attention to NATO Summit.”

  Ghali explained: “Given the recent stock market unease and the resurgence of global economic growth that will be driven by trade, traders may interpret inflation weakness as a sign that the Fed may still abandon radical interest rate increases.”

  This week, investors will usher in some heavy data, the most important of which will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday.

  Analysts pointed out that if consumer inflation data continues to maintain current trends or accelerate, then the dollar may be rebound, as the possibility of another rate hike in 2018 will rise further. However, if the CPI and the last Friday’s wage data echo and fall back, it may lead to the suppression of the dollar, which will benefit the gold price.